‘The Situation is Dire’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.

The ripple effects of a war being fought nearly 3,000km away are now reaching India's homes.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are dwindling across India, compelling restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies spread. Restaurant kitchens appear the most affected: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Kitchen fuel simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the a major restaurant body.

Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are switching to traditional burners and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Localized Effects

In a western metro, accounts say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dwindle. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is truly dismal. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are varying as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers note a spike in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.

Official Position

Yet, the government insists there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of household consumers and spokespersons say stocks are being redirected to households as tensions from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is sourced from abroad, and about nine out of ten of those shipments pass through the key maritime route, the vital passage now effectively closed by the conflict.

The petroleum ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Non-domestic supply is being prioritised for critical services such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been triggered by false reports. The regular refill period for home fuel remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a lengthy, winding line of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the description reads.

According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only a minority share domestically, importing the rest - the vast majority through the chokepoint.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of panic buying.

An industry representative states price gouging.

"Distributors are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."

For now, India's energy imports may be protected by global trade flows. But in kitchens across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next gas canister.