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Within the immense confusion regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The move to assault another state and seize its president – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He believes that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

We are not yet 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.